All canariesView the open-source dashboardSource & data on GitHubUpdated 2026-07-01 · refreshes nightly
The Signals
The Quantum Qanary
“How close are we to Q-Day?”
2029Q-Day midpoint +/-1
Q-Day midpoint remains about 3 years out on the current trajectory.
Estimated window 2028–2030
Progress toward Q-Day
Factoring
40%
Logical Qubits
8%
Divincenzo
93%
How it's measured
A weighted estimate of quantum progress toward breaking current cryptography — factoring records, logical-qubit counts, published roadmaps, and error-correction milestones. 'Q-Day' is the point at which RSA and ECC become vulnerable.